An example is this: Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very intelligent. He majored in philosophy. As a student, he was very concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and often took part in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Of Linda’s case, which is more likely?
a) Linda becomes a bank teller.
b) Linda became a bank teller and was active in the feminist movement.
The most likely answer is a) Linda became a bank teller, because statistically the probability of one thing happening is higher than the combination of two things. However, research shows that higher levels of conjunction fallacy are closely related to conspiratorial beliefs. So, people who have a tendency to believe conspiracy theories will prefer b.
EVERYONE IS VULNERABLE
Exposure to conspiracy theories has also consistently increased a person’s susceptibility to believing them. Sometimes they themselves are not even aware that they have changed their beliefs.
It does sound worrying that someone could be susceptible to believing conspiracy theories. However, these various studies have helped researchers to find the right interventions to improve critical and analytical thinking styles, in order to protect themselves from conspiracy theories. A 2023 review of 25 different studies found that these types of interventions are promising tools for preventing the harmful effects of conspiratorial beliefs.
The more we understand the psychology behind conspiracy theories, the better prepared we are to debunk them.
Darel Cookson is a Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Nottingham Trent University. This opinion article first appeared on The Conversation.
